Reported By Lee, Chen-Li（Daniel）李振麟
As China’s steel production momentum weakens and global mine supply continues to expand, the international iron ore market is coming under strong downward pressure. According to international media analysis, after showing unexpected resilience earlier this year, iron ore prices may face the risk of falling below US$100 per tonne in the coming months. Market volatility is expected to increase further, especially around the New Year period.
On the supply side, global iron ore supply continues to rise. One major focus for the market is a large new iron ore project in Guinea, which has recently begun stable shipments. Output from this project is expected to increase gradually over the coming quarters, further loosening the global supply-demand balance and creating structural pressure on iron ore prices.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government has announced that from January 1, 2026, it will introduce an export licensing system for certain steel products. According to the Ministry of Commerce, around 300 steel-related products will be included, covering steel used in automobiles, construction, and consumer goods. Exporters will be required to obtain official approval before shipping these products overseas.
The market generally believes this move is aimed at addressing record-high steel exports and easing external trade frictions. Official figures show that China’s steel exports rose 6.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, reaching 108 million tonnes, with full-year exports likely to set a new historical record. This export strength also helped push China’s total goods trade surplus above US$1 trillion for the first time.
However, some analysts argue that the licensing system is more of an administrative adjustment, and its actual ability to curb exports remains uncertain. Citigroup analysts noted that the new mechanism is likely to have a limited impact on real export volumes in 2026, with its short-term influence on market sentiment outweighing any fundamental supply-demand changes.