Financial Flash│By Lee, Chen-Lin（Daniel Lee）李振麟
According to international media reports, the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings recently issued a warning, pointing out that the lending growth rate in Vietnam’s banking system is too fast, which may further increase overall financial risks.
The Vietnamese government is considering abolishing the credit growth cap system that has been in place for many years, and this move may further widen the risks.
Willie Tanoto, a senior director of Fitch Rating Asia – Pacific financial institutions, mentioned in an interview that once the credit quota is cancelled, lending growth will further accelerate, and the current growth pace is already at a high level. He emphasized that rapidly expanding credit is bound to drive up the overall leverage level, and Vietnam’s current leverage burden is already not light.
Tanoto said that Fitch’s medium – and long – term outlook for Vietnam’s banking industry remains “neutral to positive”, but in the past six months to one year, his concern about the market has been significantly higher than that in the past five years.
The Vietnamese government recently asked the central bank to speed up the planning and has scheduled to completely abolish the annual credit growth restrictions for banks starting from 2026 to meet the grand economic goals set by the government. Vietnam hopes to achieve an economic growth rate of 8% this year and plans to grow by an average of 10% annually in the next five years.
According to the statistics of the World Bank, in the first half of this year, Vietnam’s annual credit growth rate reached 18.1%.
The State Bank of Vietnam also pointed out last month that the national credit growth rate in 2025 may reach 19% to 20%. Fitch further estimates that even if no adjustment is made to the current credit quota system, Vietnam’s credit growth will still remain at a level of about 18% next year.
惠譽評級警告稱，隨著信貸快速增長推高槓桿率，越南銀行業面臨不斷上升的風險。隨著政府計劃在2026年之前取消貸款上限，信貸擴張可能會進一步加速。分析師警告說，越南每年 18-20% 的信貸增長可能會加劇金融脆弱性。