Reported By Lee, Chen-Li（Daniel）李振麟
Looking ahead to 2026, the global economy is entering a phase of structural transformation shaped by the late stage of the high-interest-rate cycle, rising geopolitical risks, and continued waves of technology investment. Major central banks are expected to gradually conclude monetary tightening, yet interest rates are likely to remain relatively elevated. As a result, capital allocation will place greater emphasis on cash-flow management, risk control, and long-term sustainable growth.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors will remain at the core of global capital markets. The expansion of AI servers, data centers, and cloud computing is expected to drive investment across related supply chains, supporting growth in technology stocks, infrastructure, and energy-related sectors. This, in turn, will further boost demand for key industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and steel.]
In financial markets, equity volatility may increase, with investment styles gradually shifting away from pure growth narratives toward companies with stronger profitability and more resilient earnings. Meanwhile, bond markets are likely to stabilize and recover on expectations of future rate cuts, making fixed income an increasingly important source of steady returns within diversified portfolios.
Emerging markets are expected to regain momentum in 2026. Regions such as India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East are benefiting from manufacturing relocation trends and are becoming focal points for global capital. Overall, the global financial landscape in 2026 will be defined by a new balance in which technology drives market momentum, industries become more regionally segmented, and risks and opportunities coexist.
The investment environment in 2026 is therefore likely to reflect two seemingly contradictory forces: short-term volatility driven by the economic cycle—recession risks, rate cuts, and corporate earnings pressure—alongside long-term structural trends such as AI, energy, supply chains, resources, and geopolitical policy that continue to fuel capital expenditure. In other words, markets are not short of themes, but rather of companies capable of generating cash flows that can withstand economic cycles.
Trend 1: Wall Street Warns — A U.S. Recession in 2026 Could Trigger a Sharp Market Correction
Multiple Wall Street institutions warn that if the U.S. economy enters a recession in 2026, U.S. equities may face a dual adjustment in both valuation and earnings.
Key Observations
Downward revisions to corporate earnings could raise valuation risks
The pace and timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts will be critical
Defensive assets and high-dividend stocks may become more attractive
Conclusion
In 2026, U.S. equity markets will no longer be driven solely by growth stories; investors will place greater scrutiny on cash flows and risk management.
Trend 2: Slowing AI Momentum Could Prompt Taiwan’s Central Bank to Cut Rates in Q2 2026
if AI-driven exports and investment momentum begin to slow, Taiwan’s central bank may increase the likelihood of initiating rate cuts in the second quarter of 2026.
Key Observations
Whether AI continues to support export growth
The trajectory of core inflation
The effectiveness of housing and credit control measures
Conclusion
The AI business cycle is emerging as a key trigger for shifts in Taiwan’s monetary policy.
Trend 3: Foxconn Accelerates AI Robotics and Smart Manufacturing; 2026 EPS Outlook Remains Positive
Foxconn is accelerating its investments in AI robotics and smart manufacturing in an effort to increase the proportion of higher-margin businesses.
Key Observations
Whether AI servers and robotics applications achieve scale
The extent to which smart manufacturing improves profit margins
The tangible contribution of new businesses to earnings per share
Conclusion
Foxconn’s key challenge in 2026 is not scale, but the quality of earnings generated by AI-driven transformation.
Trend 4: Energy Storage, Semiconductors, and Data Centers Remain Core Investment Themes in 2026
Global capital in 2026 will continue to focus on core infrastructure supporting AI development and the energy transition.
Key Observations
Continued expansion of power grids and energy storage investment
Sustainability of semiconductor capital expenditures
Rising pressure on electricity supply and cooling capacity from data centers
Conclusion
The defining competition in 2026 will center on the integration of computing power, energy capacity, and supply-chain coordination.
Trend 5: SpaceX Could Go Public as Early as 2026, with AI and Space Data as Valuation Drivers
Markets are closely watching whether SpaceX will advance toward an IPO in 2026, with business-model maturity as the key focus.
Key Observations
The stability of Starlink’s cash flow
The potential of space-based data transmission and AI applications
Launch frequency and cost-control capabilities
Conclusion
If space-based data becomes a new pillar of AI infrastructure, SpaceX’s valuation narrative could expand significantly.
Trend 6: Advanced Manufacturing Drives Growth — Ennoconn Materials’ 2026 Quarterly Revenue Could Surge
Demand for advanced manufacturing and advanced packaging is expected to continue, providing structural growth opportunities for the materials supply chain.
Key Observations
Customer qualification and adoption progress
Improvements in capacity utilization
Product-mix upgrades and margin expansion
Conclusion
The key for materials stocks in 2026 lies in securing positions within critical process nodes.
Trend 7: A Weaker U.S. Dollar Could Spark Capital Flows Back into Emerging Markets in 2026
If the U.S. dollar weakens in 2026, asset-allocation conditions for emerging markets are likely to improve significantly.
Key Observations
Whether the U.S. interest-rate cycle officially reverses
External debt structures and current-account balances of emerging markets
Shifts in global risk appetite
Conclusion
Once the dollar trend reverses, global capital flows are likely to be reshuffled.
Tren 8: Japanese Equities Remain Attractive in 2026, with the Yen as a Key Variable
Ongoing corporate-governance reforms and improved capital efficiency continue to support Japan’s medium- to long-term equity outlook.
Key Observations
Bank of Japan policy and inflation trends
The breadth of wage growth
Corporate share buybacks and dividend policies
Conclusion
The sustainability of Japan’s equity rally will depend on whether reforms translate into tangible earnings growth.
Trend 9: Indonesia’s Policy-Driven Investment Strategy Could Accelerate Economic Growth in 2026
Through industrial and resource-based policies, Indonesia is attracting deeper foreign investment and strengthening domestic production.
Key Observations
Actual inflows of foreign direct investment
Progress in infrastructure and manufacturing development
Exchange-rate stability and inflation control
Conclusion
Indonesia’s challenge is not merely growth, but whether the quality of that growth can continue to improve.
Trend 10: IEA — Energy Investment and Demand Structures to Continue Shifting in 2026
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global energy markets to accelerate structural transformation in 2026.
Key Observations
Expansion of energy storage and power-grid investment
Rising electricity demand from data centers
Changes in energy consumption patterns in emerging markets
Conclusion
Energy is no longer just a commodity—it has become a strategic resource in AI development and industrial competition.
